Tag: inflation

Historically, mortgages have cost around 1.75% more than the benchmark 10-year Treasury note. Today, that spread is around 3.00%. That’s huge and likely not going to last. Something’s going to give—or break.

Are TIPS the best value in fixed income right now? Neil Rose explains why he recently added to holdings of inflation protected Treasurys.

It can’t be overstated how powerful ultra-low interest rates have been for asset prices and wealth accumulation over the past four decades—and the bubbles. But perhaps it is now time to think how unsustainable constant intervention and stimulus are, despite government’s good intentions.

Neil Rose discusses the state of markets amid investors' expectations of an imminent recession.

An update on the current banking crisis and a list of frequently asked questions.

The article discusses the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which was the 16th largest bank in the US with $200 billion in assets at its peak. Neil Rose provides five thoughts on the bank's collapse.

Bottom line is it seems prudent not to bet on a soft landing consensus that might only exist in a time with lots of hope, denial, and jobs available everywhere.

Neil Rose explains why this year's (modest) losses are a small price to pay for a future with much higher income generation and lower longer term risks.

Neil Rose and Arthur Mallet explain why the historic drop in bond prices—amid a bear market in stocks, no less—is raising longer-term income generation in Regency Capital portfolios.

Investors have noticed the correction in stocks and a growing chance of recession. However, the real carnage has come from the bond market. Neil Rose and Arthur Mallet discuss the ramifications of an asset class that's not as safe as people think.

After nearly 40 years of benign inflation, markets have long since written off inflation as a material risk. In fact, policymakers have been so successful at suppressing inflation, many investors and almost all economists only worry about deflation.

Stock prices are up double digits this year, with markets shrugging off the global pandemic and rising inflation. Most fixed-income (bond) indexes are slightly down year-to-date.