Author: Neil Rose, CFA

2025 has been volatile this year, but not exceptional so. A reminder that the price for surpassing gains is discomfort.

A snapshot of the data behind today’s market narrative. Whether you're bullish, bearish, or somewhere in between, these visuals offer a view of what’s shaping sentiment and strategy.

The S&P 500 may be hitting new highs, but the best value could lie in smaller, overlooked companies. Explore our 2025 small cap investing outlook, why these stocks may outperform, and how we’re positioning portfolios for quality, diversification, and long-term growth.

Most money managers are guilty of only telling their side of the story—what they expect, where they see value. I know I am. But it’s always wise to know what the market itself thinks. The market is the collective wisdom (and sometimes foolishness) of the millions of self-interested buyers and sellers trading right now.

The national debt today is over $36 trillion, representing over 100% of GDP. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the debt will exceed $52 trillion by 2035. And, if history repeats, actual numbers in 2035 will exceed estimates.

In my February 7, 2025 post, Bonds Have a Place Again, I reflected on interest rates some five years after the peak of the Bond Bubble—when interest rates reached a low never seen in human history—and two years after bond prices finally crashed in 2022. I had summarized our approach to fixed income going forward: […]

We have experienced a benign 2025 so far despite a correction in the stock market and higher volatility. Modest stock allocations and gains in insurance stocks (our single largest industry exposure), gold, and newer fixed income buys have buoyed account values.

As far as investments and what's going on today, I'm still sleeping just fine. I think you should, too. The roadmap laid out in previous letters has been followed. Stock levels are low, and what we have is outperforming overall.

In his 2011 book Debt: The First 500 Years, anthropologist David Graeber lays out the historical concept of debt, starting with the Sumer, the earliest known civilization, located in historical Mesopotamia around 3500 BCE.

Nearly five years ago, bond yields dropped to levels never seen in the thousands of years humans have been lending to one another. The shortest maturity fixed-income securities yielded virtually zero in the U.S. and less than zero in Europe and Japan.

2024 was another good year for stocks overall thanks to continued strength in just a handful of the largest technology and internet companies. The famed “Magnificent Seven” once again comprised the bulk of stocks’ overall returns.

Kawika Shoji and Neil Rose discuss the potential market reactions to a Trump or Harris win on election day.