Tag: regency capital management

Neil Rose explains why he's taking some profits and getting more defensive as investors continue to pump up stock valuations, especially Big Tech. Neil worries the markets are now depending on one big assumption, and the costs of being wrong are high.

Capital markets in 2023 showed investors’ resilience—or was it complacency? Clearer was yet another lesson on the dangers in following forecasts, especially those of policymakers, PhDs, and Wall Street strategists. The Fed’s interest rate hikes and tough inflation talk didn’t cause an “inevitable” 2023 recession after all.

The Harvard Varsity Club inducts Neil Rose into the Harvard Athletics Hall of Fame.

Historically, mortgages have cost around 1.75% more than the benchmark 10-year Treasury note. Today, that spread is around 3.00%. That’s huge and likely not going to last. Something’s going to give—or break.

Are TIPS the best value in fixed income right now? Neil Rose explains why he recently added to holdings of inflation protected Treasurys.

Neil Rose explains why anyone can manage cash like Warren Buffett. He explains how Treasury bills work and why they are a no-brainer for one’s cash reserves.

Kawika Shoji discusses the importance of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s concept of Skin in the Game and the power of identifying incentives and (often hidden) asymmetries.

Neil Rose and Arthur Mallet discuss: the hardest thing about investing, sources of investing advantages and the importance of position sizing for risk management and performance.

Neil and Co. catch up and talk about a market resembling both the late 1990s tech boom and the Nifty Fifty craze of over 50 years ago. Also discussed is Neil’s current research adventures into commodities and thoughts on electric vehicles and where he’s seeing value today.

As humans, we are not emotionally equipped to handle short term pain for long term gain. We are a fight-or-flight species, after all, seeking immediate gratification and immediate relief. Successful investing, like a lot of things in life, requires us to disobey our biology and animal brains.

Growth and quality are good things but risky when they become gateways to complacent and manic behavior.

It can’t be overstated how powerful ultra-low interest rates have been for asset prices and wealth accumulation over the past four decades—and the bubbles. But perhaps it is now time to think how unsustainable constant intervention and stimulus are, despite government’s good intentions.