Tag: bonds

In his 2011 book Debt: The First 500 Years, anthropologist David Graeber lays out the historical concept of debt, starting with the Sumer, the earliest known civilization, located in historical Mesopotamia around 3500 BCE.

Nearly five years ago, bond yields dropped to levels never seen in the thousands of years humans have been lending to one another. The shortest maturity fixed-income securities yielded virtually zero in the U.S. and less than zero in Europe and Japan.

2024 was another good year for stocks overall thanks to continued strength in just a handful of the largest technology and internet companies. The famed “Magnificent Seven” once again comprised the bulk of stocks’ overall returns.

Returns this year have been kinder than I would have expected given our rather conservative positioning. Stock allocations have been lower than usual, with little in information technology and internet-related stocks, two areas that have accounted for the lion’s share of the stock market’s returns in recent years.

Capital markets in 2023 showed investors’ resilience—or was it complacency? Clearer was yet another lesson on the dangers in following forecasts, especially those of policymakers, PhDs, and Wall Street strategists. The Fed’s interest rate hikes and tough inflation talk didn’t cause an “inevitable” 2023 recession after all.

Neil Rose explains why anyone can manage cash like Warren Buffett. He explains how Treasury bills work and why they are a no-brainer for one’s cash reserves.

Neil Rose highlights the risks and failures of banks.

Neil Rose discusses the state of markets amid investors' expectations of an imminent recession.

An update on the current banking crisis and a list of frequently asked questions.

The article discusses the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which was the 16th largest bank in the US with $200 billion in assets at its peak. Neil Rose provides five thoughts on the bank's collapse.

Bottom line is it seems prudent not to bet on a soft landing consensus that might only exist in a time with lots of hope, denial, and jobs available everywhere.

Neil Rose explains why this year's (modest) losses are a small price to pay for a future with much higher income generation and lower longer term risks.